Reach-Frequency vs. Propagation-Durability

As recently as a generation ago, America watched TV in massive numbers, as it happened. The reach of television was incredible—on  February 20th 1983, 106 million people, some 60% of all households in the US, tuned in at the same time to watch the last episode of  M*A*S*H. Today, the urge to race home by 8:00 PM to catch something on TV is increasingly rare, rendered less relevant by digital video recorders, video-on-demand, and internet viewing.

Yet, despite the media landscape growing ever more complicated, we still measure the impact of campaigns largely based on the concepts of Reach & Frequency, holdovers from the days of Must-See TV and a world where we had a  comprehensible number of media “channels” and options. With truly multi-channel and integrated programs, we need new ways of  thinking about what success looks like.

For starters, measuring  ”reach” in today’s billion-channel world is somewhat problematic. Anything appearing on a web site has the potential to reach the entire online  population of billions of people anywhere on the planet. Tonight, a  new web site could launch, get huge, and become an important channel  by next week—and yet not even appear on the planning radar in a Reach &  Frequency model based on what people were watching last month or last year. Similarly, “frequency” is a measure rooted in a universe of  habituated responses to limited channels and orderly message flow, rather than our present on-demand, always-on, socially-networked media environment.

While Reach and Frequency can still be useful tools for planning traditional media campaigns, it is critical that we develop a methodology to measure engagement across media. For this purpose, we may be well served with a model based on Propagation &  Durability.

Propagation tracks how well a message spans media channels, from the twitchy now of Twitter to the more analytical and  predictable pace of monthly magazines. A message that jumps channels is well propagated, rippling out to touch a wider audience. Durability is the other half of the equation. Does a shiny new message pop like a 4th of July firework, bright for a moment, then quick to  fade? Or does it build momentum, leaping from Twitter to blogs to mainstream media over time? A peak-plummet performance has less durability than one that enters the social dialog and sticks, and thus less impact.

Together, Propagation & Durability are a winning combination for measuring the effectiveness of an integrated media program.  Fortunately, measuring Propagation & Durability is fairly easy and it should be possible, over time, to develop norms and correlate these measures to lifts in traditional indicators such as awareness, intent, brand favorability, and sales.

Planning for the Propagation and Durability requires a shift in mindset. Reach & Frequency models can provide the historical baseline—general indicators similar to historical weather patterns (i.e., in the winter, we average 10″ of snow). For a truly integrated campaign, the approach must also become iterative. Ideas and elements are seeded and monitored. Weeding becomes as important as seeding, since not all of the ideas will sprout while others will grow too fast and crowd themselves out. Post launch optimization is critical, a process of continual reduction/reinforcement informed by an intelligent appraisal of market reaction. Ideally, the process eventually leads to a refinement of goals and objectives, a new crop of ideas.